Follow the money
Start with last year’s budget. The 2025–26 Federal Budget handed the ATO another $1 billion to spend on compliance over four years, with $717.8 million of that earmarked specifically for the Tax Avoidance Taskforce. That's not a headline figure sitting idle in a press release — it's now six months into being spent, on staff, on systems, and on the kind of data-matching that used to take investigators weeks and now takes an algorithm minutes.
At Kelly+Partners Accountants, we're not reading about this second-hand. We're seeing it with our own clients: a genuine, measurable increase in reviews from the ATO and from state revenue offices like OSR and SRO.
Nobody is being singled out — that's the point
It would be more comforting, in a strange way, if the ATO were simply targeting one industry, or one type of business owner. It isn't. Its focus has shifted to behaviours and patterns, wherever they show up: income that looks lower than it should, deductions that look larger than they should, lodgements that arrive later than they should, GST figures that don't reconcile, super that doesn't land on time, debts that sit unpaid, records that don't hold together under a second look, and numbers that simply don't match what everyone else in the same industry reports.
None of these, on their own, is proof of anything. Together, they're exactly the kind of signal a modern compliance system is built to notice. And the ATO's ability to notice has changed. It can pull data from banks and other third parties and set it against what's been reported. The assumption every business owner should now operate under is simple: whatever you report can, and likely will, be checked against something else.
The mistakes that were always mistakes
Some of what gets flagged isn't new at all — it's just being caught more often. Running personal expenses through a business account remains as impermissible as it's always been; only the portion of an expense that genuinely relates to earning business income is deductible, and mixed-use expenses need to be apportioned honestly, not optimistically. A wrong figure on a BAS or tax return has always been fixable, and it still is — but the businesses that come out ahead are the ones that flag it to their accountant the moment they notice, rather than the ones that wait to see if anyone else notices first.
What's changed isn't the rule. It's the odds of getting away with bending it.
Two changes that actually landed this year
Two things shifted the ground under business owners in 2026, and both are now fully in effect rather than hovering on the horizon.
The first is Payday Super, which came into force on 1 July. Super now has to be paid alongside wages, not settled up quarterly at your own convenience. For a business with even modestly complex payroll, that's not a paperwork tweak — it's a cash flow and systems change that either happened properly or is already causing friction.
The second is less visible but arguably more expensive: interest on ATO debt incurred on or after 1 July 2025 stopped being tax deductible. That change has now had a full year to bite. Businesses still sitting on an ATO balance are paying more for it in real terms than they were two years ago, with none of the offsetting tax relief they might be used to factoring in. Carrying ATO debt in 2026 is a materially different proposition to carrying it in 2024.
The parts people still get confused about
Two clarifications worth making plainly. Payroll tax has nothing to do with the ATO — it's a state and territory tax, administered separately — but that doesn't make it a lesser risk, particularly for businesses with staff spread across more than one state, where thresholds and rules diverge in ways that catch people out. And Xero, for all its usefulness, records what happened; it doesn't tell you what it means. Software is not a substitute for someone who looks at the numbers, questions what looks wrong, and fixes it before it becomes a finding rather than a footnote.
Organised, not anxious
Take all of this together and the picture isn't one of a tax office out to get small business. It's a tax system that finally has the data, the speed and the tools to see inconsistencies it used to miss. That's a different thing, and it calls for a different response.
You don't need to fear the ATO in 2026. You do need to be organised — genuinely organised, with clean records, accurate BAS lodgements, payroll that reflects the Payday Super rules, super paid on time, and a business structure that's actually been reviewed rather than inherited.